Catalysis such as gold or high-level concussionBeatingrouletteAttach importance to the value of rare earth allocation 24Q1 copper, gold, aluminum and tin mining enterprises in non-ferrous industries achieved significant year-on-year increases with rising metal prices; copper smelting enterprises are under pressure due to the continuous decline in processing fees. The situation in the Middle East is an important variable affecting the short-term trend of gold prices; if the central bank continues to buy large amounts of gold or has a long way to go in the context of global multipolarization, it will play a good backing role for gold prices; the future direction of gold prices may need to wait for the situation in the Middle East and the economic direction of the United States to become clear. The rare earth industry 24H1 has entered the risk release period of inventory impairment, the supply and demand pattern of the industry has bottomed out since March, and the listing price of rare earths in the north has increased in May; or strategic attention can be paid to the allocation opportunities of low-inventory enterprises. The demand for electricity and new energy remains high, real estate and infrastructure policies support domestic optimism, and pro-cyclical varieties of copper, aluminum and manganese may maintain high prices. 24Q1 non-ferrous industry performance is good, copper smelting and zinc enterprise performance under pressure during the 24Q1 period, the last period of copper, aluminum, tin, gold, silver active contract settlement prices achieved a positive year-on-year increase of about 1. 1%Beatingroulette.3%, 2.7%, 3.8%, 16.7% and 18.4%; the average price of zinc active contract fell 10% from the same period last year. According to Wind, gold, silver, aluminum, copper, tin mining companies Q1 performance is better, with commodity prices rising to achieve significant positive growth. The 24Q1 performance of zinc mining enterprises is under pressure as zinc prices fall. Copper smelters are under pressure because of the rapid decline in smelting processing fees and the downward price of by-product sulfuric acid, but sulfuric acid prices gradually stabilized in February and smelting costs have not yet stabilized. While the price of electrolytic aluminum rose, the cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and the quarterly average gross profit of the industry rose from 1077 yuan / ton of 23Q1 to 2216 yuan of 24Q1 (according to SMM). The rare earth industry 24H1 has entered a risk release period, inventory turnover days or important reference indicators, according to Wind, the quarterly average prices of typical rare earth products praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, 23Q1 and 24Q1 are 669,000 yuan / ton and 386,000 yuan / ton, while the quarterly average price of 24Q1 is about 42% lower than the same period last year. According to Wind,24Q1, China rare earths and Shenghe Resources all reported a large impairment of assets and a loss of net profit, while the net profit of northern rare earths fell sharply by 94.35%, making only a small profit. At present, the inventory turnover days of Chinese rare earths, northern rare earths and Shenhe Resources to 24Q1 are 488,250,140 days respectively, the highest since 2022. In March 24, with the prosperity in key areas such as home appliances and automobiles, rare earth prices stopped falling and stabilized. The listing prices of rare earths in the north announced in May increased by more than 7% for some products. In view of the high concentration on the supply side of rare earths, starting to go to the warehouse or indicate that the industry is turning into a shortage, prices may continue to rise. Gold prices remain high in the short term, focusing on the follow-up economic and geopolitical events. We believe that continued tensions in the Middle East in January-April 24 have pushed up oil prices, while re-inflation fears have pushed gold prices higher. The change in the situation in the Middle East is a very important factor affecting gold prices from January to April, and gold prices showed a significant correction in late April as the geopolitical events between Palestine and Israel eased. But gold prices stabilized after April's weaker US non-farm data and higher unemployment than Bloomberg expected, as pessimism about expectations of US interest rate cuts began to repair. The Bank of Korea announced plans to buy gold in early May, and the people's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 16th month in a row, according to Wind. We believe that in the context of global multipolarization, the continued purchase or long-term strategy of the central bank will support and boost the price of gold. The gold price may remain high in the short term. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the catalytic effect of the subsequent development of the situation in the Middle East and the clarity of the US economic trend on the gold price. The demand for electricity and new energy remains high, and real estate and infrastructure policies support domestic optimism. According to the SMM,24, investment in power grid and power projects increased by 14.7% and 7.7% year on year from January to March, while sales of new energy vehicles and new photovoltaic installations increased by 28.1% and 31.9% year on year. Demand in the power and new energy industries remained high. Although the demand for infrastructure has weakened, the growth of the new energy and power industries has increased the cumulative domestic demand for copper and aluminum by 11% and 5.6% from January to March compared with the same period last year. In addition, with the continued strength of domestic real estate policies, special bonds and other policies; according to Wind, the Citigroup China surprise Economic Index was 5.6 on May 9, indicating that the market is optimistic about the macro-economy. Copper, aluminum and other pro-cyclical varieties prices short-term or maintain high operation. According to MB,South32, production and port facilities at the Australian manganese mine were affected by the hurricane and may be suspended for a year; manganese-silicon ferroalloy prices may remain high. Risk hints: policy implementation uncertainty, overseas risk uncertainty. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.