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[USDA and MPOB reports bring neutral bias to the oil market]

Recently, the oil market has shown a volatile trend, rising high and falling down.LevvvelcomcoinmasterfreespinThe possibility cannot be ignored in the short term.

The May report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had a neutral and bearish impact on the oil market. The report points out that the yield forecast of South American soybean 2023max in 24 is lower than market expectations, while the carry-over inventory of American soybean 2024max in 25 is as high as 4.Levvvelcomcoinmasterfreespin.45 billion pu indicates that the supply and demand pattern of new crops will be further relaxed, which may impose significant restrictions on the rising space of CBOT soybean prices before the start of acreage and weather speculation.

On the other hand, the May report of Malaysia Palm Oil Authority (MPOB) also showed a neutral air trend. Malaysian palm oil production reached 1.5 million tonnes in April, up 7.86 per cent from a month earlier, while inventories rebounded to 1.74 million tonnes at the end of April against a weak export backdrop, according to the report. At present, the impact of flooding and Ramadan on palm oil production has receded, and the seasonal increase is expected to continue to boost Malaysian palm oil stocks.

Although the UCO import tariff that the United States may impose on China has boosted the American soybean oil market in the short term, due to the low performance-to-price ratio and fierce competition for substitutes, it is difficult for American soybean oil to get a significant increase in demand from this policy, which will also limit the persistence of the rebound in the price of American soybean oil.

Analysts predict that in the future, the main operating range of soybean oil 09 will be between 7500 and 7850, while that of palm oil 09 will be between 7300 and 7700.