![wwwjackpotcity| [Weekly tracking of domestic and foreign arbitrage of crude oil] The monthly spread structure has strengthened, and oil prices have consolidated their high foundation](https://www.hbbg888.com/zb_users/upload/water/2024-04-28/662dd85e0b550.jpeg "wwwjackpotcity| [Weekly tracking of domestic and foreign arbitrage of crude oil] The monthly spread structure has strengthened, and oil prices have consolidated their high foundation")
Energy research and development center
Arbitrage tracking:
1) spread: April 26th, SC January-March difference is 10Wwwjackpotcity.3 yuan per barrel, a weekly increase of 21%, and the monthly fluctuation is stronger. The difference between Brent1 and March is US $2.12 per barrel, a weekly increase of 23 per cent and a high monthly difference. The main contract of SC-Brent is 2.61 US dollars per barrel, a weekly increase of 32%.WwwjackpotcityThe main contract of SC-WTI is US $8.28 / barrel, a weekly increase of 36%. The price difference between SC and the outer disk rose significantly at the beginning of the week.
2) arbitrage: ① valuation: in the early morning of April 26th, the stock price of ① 30Brent 2406 is US $89.33 per barrel, while that of SC 2407 is 644.7 yuan per barrel. It is estimated that the theoretical price of SC 2407 is 634.5 yuan per barrel, and the change of the disk price relative to the theoretical price is + 1.6%. The deviation of the stock valuation continues to ease this week. ② profit: estimated SC2407 landing profit is 10.17 yuan / barrel, equivalent to 1.43 U.S. dollars / barrel, landing profit continues to decline. ③ spread: SC2407-Brent 2406 disk difference is 1.55 USD / barrel, theoretical difference is 0.12 USD / barrel, theoretical difference is lower than disk spread.
3) conclusion: oil prices are still volatile around the geopolitical situation in the Middle East this week. The obvious rebound in the monthly difference structure means that the pressure on supply and demand in the market is relatively small, and oil prices can still consolidate the high foundation. Brent-Dubai EFS rebounded again. The valuation of the SC 07 contract has moderated from last week's high, with a relatively slower rise, meaning a return of premium space brought about by the falling probability of geopolitical runaway. At the same time, landing profits continue to narrow and profit drivers have weakened. Short-term geopolitical uncertainty may keep oil prices high.
The content was originally created by Haitong Futures Energy Research and Development Center.
